'2050년 세계경제 장기전망 - 세계경제순위의 변화' PwC

한줄 요약: '2050년 세계 경제 G7 지고, E7 뜬다.'

We published the first edition of our ‘World in 2050’ report in March 2006, which set out projections for potential growth in GDP in 17 leading economies over the period to 2050. These countries were:

 the G7 ^[각주:1](the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Canada), plus Australia, South Korea and Spain among the current advanced economies; and

 the seven largest emerging market economies, which we refer to collectively as the E7^[각주:2] (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey).

These projections were updated in March 2008, January 2011 and January 2013, expanding the country coverage by adding:

 Argentina, South Africa and Saudi Arabia so that all of the G20 economies were covered;

 Vietnam and Nigeria as potential fast-growing frontier economies; and

 Poland (as the largest economy in Central and Eastern Europe except Russia) and Malaysia (as a fastgrowing medium-sized economy within the Asia-Pacific region).

Two years after the last update in January 2013, we are now revisiting our ‘World in 2050’ GDP projections, and extending the country coverage to include eight additional relatively large economies: Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, Iran, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Philippines and Thailand. 

Our World in 2050 model therefore now covers a total of 32 countries, which currently account for around 84% of world GDP (up from around 80% for the 24 economies in our 2013 report).

Our analysis suggests that this group of 32 countries should have a high probability of including at least the largest 25 economies in the world looking ahead to the middle of this century. We cannot say, however, that they will necessarily be the largest 32 economies bearing in mind the considerable uncertainties that come with any such long-term projections. There could be some other fast-rising economies that overtake some of this group of 32 by 2050.

저의 제안: 일자리 많아져서 출산 늘리자

본문첨부

world-in-2050-february-2015.pdf

1. Government 7 (미국, 일본, 독일, 영국, 프랑스, 이탈리아) 더하기 호주, 대한민국, 스페인 [본문으로]
2. Emerging 7 (중국, 인도, 브라질, 러시아, 인도네시아, 멕시코, 터키) [본문으로]